How Land Will Trade in 2026

Land markets don’t move independently. They respond to capital availability, construction economics, absorption trends, and buyer confidence across the broader real estate landscape. As we enter 2026, those signals are aligning in a way that suggests a healthier, but still disciplined, environment for land transactions.

This is not a return to speculative behavior. It is a market that rewards preparation, clarity, and execution.

The 2026 Land Market at a Glance

Land transaction activity in 2026 is expected to improve from recent lows, but the recovery will be measured rather than dramatic. Our expected trends for 2026:

• Transaction volume increases modestly

• Deal sizes skew smaller and more incremental

• Buyers remain selective and price-conscious

• Well-positioned land outperforms broadly marketed land

Liquidity is returning, but it is focused and discerning.

Why Activity Improves Without a Surge

Across the real estate spectrum, sales activity has stabilized and begun to recover, yet remains below historical peaks. New construction pipelines are controlled, capital is available but cautious, and underwriting standards remain conservative.

For land, this translates into:

• Buyers re-engaging to secure future development sites

• Longer planning horizons, often targeting 2027–2028 deliveries

• A preference for certainty over speculation

Land is being acquired to support real projects, not to warehouse risk.

The Types of Land That Will Trade in 2026

Entitled and Near-Entitled Land Leads the Market

Land with zoning in place, utilities identified, and a clear development path attracts the most attention. Buyers are prioritizing sites where execution risk is already reduced and timelines are more predictable.

Raw land without entitlements can still trade, but typically requires:

• Pricing adjustments

• Longer escrows

• Phased or option-based structures

Certainty is being valued more than upside.

Redevelopment Sites Gain Momentum

Properties with existing improvements that no longer serve their highest and best use are increasingly being evaluated for their underlying land value. These transactions often involve demolition or conversion and are underwritten with a land-first mindset.

This segment tends to attract:

• Experienced operators

• Buyers comfortable with entitlement and repositioning work

• Capital seeking basis protection rather than yield maximization

Redevelopment land is becoming one of the more consistent sources of transaction activity.

Smaller, Phased Deals Dominate

Large, single-close land trades are less common in this environment. Instead, the market favors:

• Smaller acreage deals

• Phased takedowns

• Parcel-by-parcel strategies

This approach allows buyers to match capital deployment with demand and limits exposure to market shifts.

Pricing Dynamics in 2026

Land pricing in 2026 is characterized by stability rather than acceleration.

• Transaction velocity improves before pricing does

• Sellers anchored to earlier-cycle pricing assumptions face longer marketing periods

• Buyers remain disciplined, underwriting to current construction costs and realistic exit scenarios

In practical terms, values tend to flatten first, followed by gradual appreciation in locations where execution risk is low and demand fundamentals are clear.

What Successful Landowners Are Doing Right Now

Landowners who achieve favorable outcomes in this environment tend to focus on preparation and positioning rather than timing the market.

They reduce uncertainty

• Clarifying zoning, land use, and entitlement status

• Addressing known issues before marketing

• Providing clear documentation upfront

They price for engagement

• Setting pricing that invites conversation rather than resistance

• Understanding how buyers underwrite deals today

• Remaining flexible on structure where appropriate

They think in terms of options

• Considering phased sales or partial dispositions

• Evaluating joint venture or option structures when suitable

• Allowing buyers to manage risk while preserving long-term value

They tell a clear story

• Focusing on facts, not projections

• Explaining why the land works today, not just what it might become

• Aligning the narrative with realistic development timelines

Looking Ahead

2026 is shaping up to be a year where land transactions become more consistent, even if pricing remains disciplined. Buyers are active, capital is available, and projects are moving forward, but only where the path is clear.

Landowners who invest in clarity, preparation, and realistic positioning are best positioned to succeed in this environment.

We speak with developers, investors, and landowners across the region daily. If you want to understand how those conversations translate to your property specifically, let’s connect.

Thanks,

John & Ramey