March Residential Permit Snapshot for Phoenix Metro

Hope everyone is doing well! Slight tweak to the format below to try and make the numbers more legible…a PDF (readable) version of the charts can be downloaded here.

For single family homes, the monthly total of 2,372 was 16.12% lower than the count from a year ago while the trailing 12-month number of 28,901 is 1.31% up from the year ago number of 28,526. The current T-12 number is also 9.63% higher than the long-term average (since 2000).

On the stock market front, XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) is sitting at $94.09, down 9.94% YTD and 25.38% from its 52-week high of $126.09, which it hit on November 25, 2024. It does look like it’s building support after hitting its 52-week low of $84.48 on April 9.

Multifamily permits came in at 1,568, which was 7.49% lower than a year ago but the first time that count has been over 1,000 since November. The trailing 12-month count was 13,184, a retreat from the year ago number of 19,389 but still 45.73% higher than the long-term average (since 2000) of 9,047.

On the stock market front, FN18 (FTSE NAREIT Equity Apartments) is sitting at $667.29, down 11.67% YTD and 15.64% from its 52-week high of $791.04, which it also hit on November 25, 2024.

The combined trailing 12-month permit count decreased 12.17% from the previous year and down 1.37% from last month, basically reflecting the large drop we’ve seen in multifamily permits. A year ago, the T-12 multifamily permits accounted for 40.47% of the combined number, while through March, they represented 31.32% of the total.

Since 2000, multifamily permits have made up 25.55% of the total permit count, so it appears the market is reverting to the mean when it comes to the balance between multifamily and single family permitting.

Thanks for reading, as always, please reach out with anything we can help you with.

Thanks,

John & Ramey