Hi everyone, below are the updated permit numbers through July.

About the numbers…

But first…I want to make a note about the permit numbers. The counts I’m sending out are from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (should they fire Jimbo?), who takes them from the US Census Bureau. Some excerpts from the Census’ methodology are included at the end of this post for anyone interested. My goal in tracking these is to identify trends and see where we stand today within a larger historical context. If you are looking for more granular data for your business, there are groups out there who provide more detailed analyses.

Last Month’s Poll Results

The leading response was 3.5 - 4.0% with 21% of the vote. The 2^nd most common response? A tie between Under 3% and Over 5.5%, both at 18%. I guess I should have provided more increments on the high and low end! 😃 As of this writing, the 10-year is at 4.252%, up from 4.012% at the time of the poll but down from the recent peak of 4.342% on August 21^st . Thank you to those who provided some additional nuance to their responses, I enjoyed reading them.

This Month’s Poll

Single Family Permits

Single family permits came in at 2,256 for the month, which is 4.88% higher than last month’s count and 18.55% higher than the same month last year. As anticipated, the trailing 12-month number turned positive and is up 1.76% from last month. I also added a trailing 3-month average to the chart above to show the short-term momentum. If we wanted to take a page out of the stock market’s book, we could say the trailing 3-month crossing the trailing 12-month in April was a ‘bullish’ signal.

Multifamily Permits

Multifamily permits jumped back up to 1,885, which was a 52.02% increase over the revised number of 1,240 from last month, but it was not enough to set a new peak in the trailing 12-month count. Applying the same stock market lingo to this chart, we could say the 3-month dropping below the 12-month is a ‘bearish’ signal. However, looking at the whole chart, we can see how choppy that signal can be and should assign it less credibility until we see more.

Combined Permits

Combined permits came in at 4,141 for the month and 41,262 for the trailing 12-months. The trailing 12-month count is down 19.67% year over year and up 0.20% month over month. The 3-month and 12-month counts are roughly in line, so where they go from here will likely depend on what happens with multifamily permits.

A PDF of the charts can be downloaded by clicking here

Fiesta Bowl

As some of you may know, I am a longtime Fiesta Bowl Committee Member. We recently opened up ticket sales to the Fiesta Bowl to the public. Through Sept. 30th, if you enter my Access Code (RPERU) after following this link, you’ll lock in your price for 3 years and get a discount on fees. Why would you want to price lock for 3 years? Because next year we will be hosting a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup and the year after we will be hosting a semifinal matchup. If you’re interested in getting involved with the Fiesta Bowl in another manner, please reach out!

Excerpts from the Census’ Methodology

For those interested, below are a few excerpts from the Census’ methodology. A longer “About” section can be found here. If you really want to get into the weeds, here is a link to the C-404 form that is filled out to produce these numbers. The bottom of page 2 of the C-404 gives details of what should be included in the survey numbers.

• The purpose of the Building Permits Survey is to provide national, state, and local statistics on the number and valuation of new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in the United States.

• The Conference Board uses the data for developing its index of leading economic indicators. The Federal Reserve Board uses the data to analyze national and regional economic conditions. The Department of Housing and Urban Development uses the data to evaluate housing programs. Financial institutions use these statistics to estimate mortgage demand. Private businesses use them for market planning, material use, and investment analysis.

• Building permits data are collected from individual permit offices, most of which are municipalities; the remainder are counties, townships, or New England and Middle Atlantic-type towns. Because building permits are public records, local area data can be published without any confidentiality concerns.

• Revised monthly data are released on or about the 17th working day following the reference month. At that time, monthly estimates are available at the Census Division, state, metropolitan area, county, and permit-issuing-place levels. All data are placed on the Census website at: www.census.gov/permits. Estimates in the New Residential Construction press release are not updated on the 17th working day. Any revisions are shown in the next month’s release.

• Monthly estimates are benchmarked each year following the completion of the annual survey to create final annual estimates which are released on the 1st working day of May. The benchmarked monthly estimates are made available with the release of April data on the New Residential Construction.

Thanks for reading, until next time,

Ramey