Hi everyone, hopefully you all have survived long enough to enjoy the sub-110 temperature we are expecting on Sunday! Below are the updated permit numbers through June.

10-Year Treasury

Before we get to the numbers, I’ve been a part of several conversations recently regarding where the 10-year treasury is heading. So, I put together this chart to show the averages for various time periods for the Fed Funds Rate, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, core PCE and the 10-year treasury. Let me know what you think below and I’ll share the results in the next email. For reference, as of this writing, the 10-year is sitting at 4.012%.

Single Family

Single family permits came in at 2,151 for the month, which is within 5% of the monthly count from both a year and month ago. If the momentum holds, we should start to see some positive percentages in the YOY monthly numbers. The trailing 12-month number is flattening out at the bottom and is only down 0.57% from last month. If July’s monthly count is in line with what we’ve seen the last 3 months, the trailing 12-month number will turn positive month over month for the first time since March 2022.

Multifamily

Multifamily permits were lower for the third month in a row, coming in at 692. Something interesting is the makeup of the permits. Multifamily 2-4 units came in at 512, which is the highest in the dataset by a long shot. Multifamily 5+ was down at 180, which is the lowest since September 2020. The trailing 12-months count is down 5.53% from last month but still up 8.30% year over year.

Combined

Combined permits came in at 2,843 for the month and 40,488 for the trailing 12-months. The trailing 12-month count is down 22.23% year over year and 3.14% month over month.

A PDF of the charts can be downloaded by clicking here

Thanks for reading, until next time,

Ramey