Hi everyone, I’m very late in getting this one out given the June numbers will be released next week, but below are the updated permit numbers through May.

Single Family

Single family permits came in at 2,246 for the month, continuing their recovery from the 1,000 - 1,400 we saw monthly from September through February. Based on the strength of the last three months, it does appear that single family permits bottomed in December of last year and the trailing 12-month count should reach bottom sometime around September, depending on how the next few months shake out. If the momentum continues, the lower counts mentioned above will then start to drop off and be replaced by higher counts and the trailing 12-month will start to climb again.

Multifamily

Multifamily permits were lower for the second month in a row, coming in at 1,156. The trailing 12-month finally failed to set a new high, leaving the 22,002 count from last month as the current peak. Based on what we’re seeing in the market, it seems like that will stick as the top for now. If it does indeed remain the top, it will have peaked 22 months after the single-family permit peak in June of 2021. For comparison, the peak leading into the GFC was in January of 2008, 34 months after single-family permits peaked in March of 2005.

Combined

Combined permits came in at 3,402 for the month and 41,784 for the trailing 12-months, both roughly 20% off the same numbers from a year ago. The T12 count is ~20% off the most recent peak.

A PDF of the charts can be downloaded here - May Residential Permit Snapshot.pdf (wsimg.com)

Thanks for reading, until next time,

Ramey